Estimates of Future New Particle Formation under Different Emission Scenarios in Beijing

James Brean*, Alex Rowell, David Beddows, Zongbo Shi, Roy Harrison*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Abstract

New particle formation (NPF) is a leading source of particulate matter by number and a contributor to particle mass during haze events. Reductions in emissions of air pollutants, many of which are NPF precursors, are expected in the move toward carbon neutrality or net-zero. Expected changes to pollutant emissions are used to investigate future changes to NPF processes, in comparison to a simulation of current conditions. The projected changes to SO2 emissions are key in changing future NPF number, with different scenarios producing either a doubling or near total reduction in sulfuric acid-amine particle formation rates. Particle growth rates are projected to change little in all but the strictest emission control scenarios. These changes will reduce the particle mass arising by NPF substantially, thus showing a further cobenefit of net-zero policies. Major uncertainties remain in future NPF including the volatility of oxygenated organic molecules resulting from changes to NOx and amine emissions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4741-4750
Number of pages10
JournalEnvironmental Science and Technology
Volume57
Issue number12
Early online date17 Mar 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28 Mar 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant number 2021GRIP02COP-AQ, R.M.H. and Z.S.).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society.

Keywords

  • NPF
  • nucleation
  • growth
  • aerosols
  • net-zero
  • China
  • Anthropogenic Impacts on the Atmosphere
  • Article

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Chemistry(all)
  • Environmental Chemistry

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