What to Do When the F10.7 Goes Out?

Sean Elvidge; David R. Themens; Matthew K. Brown; Elizabeth Donegan‐Lawley

doi:10.1029/2022SW003392

What to Do When the F10.7 Goes Out?

Sean Elvidge^*, David R. Themens, Matthew K. Brown, Elizabeth Donegan‐Lawley

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is a critical operational space weather index. However, without a clear backup, any interruption to the service can result in substantial errors in model outputs. In this paper we show the impact of one such outage in March 2022 on the models TIE-GCM and NeQuick, and present a number of alternative solutions that could be used for future outages. The analysis is extended to the F10.7 time series since 1951 and the approach resulting in the smallest reconstruction error of F10.7 uses the solar radio flux observations at alternative wavelengths (the best giving a percentage error of 3.1%). Alternatively, use of Sunspot Number, a regular, robust alternative observation, results in a mean percentage error of 8.2% and is also a reliable fallback solution. Additionally, analysis of the error on the use of the conversion between the 12-month rolling sunspot number (R12) and its conversion to F10.7 is included.

Original language	English
Article number	e2022SW003392
Number of pages	7
Journal	Space Weather
Volume	21
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003392
Publication status	Published - 11 Apr 2023

Keywords

operations
F10.7
upper atmosphere
ionosphere
thermosphere
Time variable gravity
Policy
SPACE WEATHER
Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction
IONOSPHERE
Probabilistic forecasting
HYDROLOGY
Magnetic storms and substorms
Earthquake source observations
Seismicity and tectonics
Interferometry
Seismic cycle related deformations
Prediction
Coronal mass ejections
GEODESY AND GRAVITY
NATURAL HAZARDS
Monitoring, forecasting, prediction
Forecasting
SEISMOLOGY
Ocean predictability and prediction
Subduction zones
Continental crust
INFORMATICS
Earthquake dynamics
Models
Gravity anomalies and Earth structure
Transient deformation
INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS
Ionospheric physics
Estimation and forecasting
EXPLORATION GEOPHYSICS
General or miscellaneous
RADIO SCIENCE
Research Article
Space weather
SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY
Gravity methods
MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS
MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS
Satellite geodesy: results
Tectonic deformation
OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL
POLICY SCIENCES
Magnetic storms

Access to Document

10.1029/2022SW003392Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

ElvidgeS2023WhattoFinal published version, 1.16 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

DRivers and Impacts of Ionospheric Variability with EISCAT-3D (DRIIVE)
Elvidge, S. & Themens, D.
Natural Environment Research Council
11/04/22 → 10/04/26
Project: Research Councils
Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk: Ionosphere (SWIMMR-I)
Elvidge, S. & Cannon, P.
Natural Environment Research Council
1/06/20 → 31/05/25
Project: Research Councils
Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk: Thermosphere (SWIMMR-T)
Elvidge, S. & Cannon, P.
Natural Environment Research Council
1/06/20 → 31/05/25
Project: Research Councils

Cite this

@article{73543e5af75f41e7bf7245594ae9c0cc,

title = "What to Do When the F10.7 Goes Out?",

abstract = "The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is a critical operational space weather index. However, without a clear backup, any interruption to the service can result in substantial errors in model outputs. In this paper we show the impact of one such outage in March 2022 on the models TIE-GCM and NeQuick, and present a number of alternative solutions that could be used for future outages. The analysis is extended to the F10.7 time series since 1951 and the approach resulting in the smallest reconstruction error of F10.7 uses the solar radio flux observations at alternative wavelengths (the best giving a percentage error of 3.1%). Alternatively, use of Sunspot Number, a regular, robust alternative observation, results in a mean percentage error of 8.2% and is also a reliable fallback solution. Additionally, analysis of the error on the use of the conversion between the 12-month rolling sunspot number (R12) and its conversion to F10.7 is included.",

keywords = "operations, F10.7, upper atmosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, Time variable gravity, Policy, SPACE WEATHER, Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction, IONOSPHERE, Probabilistic forecasting, HYDROLOGY, Magnetic storms and substorms, Earthquake source observations, Seismicity and tectonics, Interferometry, Seismic cycle related deformations, Prediction, Coronal mass ejections, GEODESY AND GRAVITY, NATURAL HAZARDS, Monitoring, forecasting, prediction, Forecasting, SEISMOLOGY, Ocean predictability and prediction, Subduction zones, Continental crust, INFORMATICS, Earthquake dynamics, Models, Gravity anomalies and Earth structure, Transient deformation, INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS, Ionospheric physics, Estimation and forecasting, EXPLORATION GEOPHYSICS, General or miscellaneous, RADIO SCIENCE, Research Article, Space weather, SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY, Gravity methods, MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS, Satellite geodesy: results, Tectonic deformation, OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL, POLICY SCIENCES, Magnetic storms",

author = "Sean Elvidge and Themens, {David R.} and Brown, {Matthew K.} and Elizabeth Donegan‐Lawley",

year = "2023",

month = apr,

day = "11",

doi = "10.1029/2022SW003392",

language = "English",

volume = "21",

journal = "Space Weather",

issn = "1539-4956",