No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years

Zhiyi Jiang; Chris Brierley; Jurgen Bader; Pascale Braconnot; M Erb; Peter Hopcroft; D Jiang; Johann Jungclaus; V Khon; G Lohmann; O Marti; Bette L. Otto-bliesner; M Osman; B Schneider; X Shi; DJR Thornalley; Z Tian; Qiong Zhang

doi:10.1029/2023GL103078

No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years

Zhiyi Jiang^*, Chris Brierley, Jurgen Bader, Pascale Braconnot, M Erb, Peter Hopcroft, D Jiang, Johann Jungclaus, V Khon, G Lohmann, O Marti, Bette L. Otto-bliesner, M Osman, B Schneider, X Shi, DJR Thornalley, Z Tian, Qiong Zhang

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid‐to‐late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid‐ and late‐Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023GL103078
Number of pages	12
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	50
Issue number	10
Early online date	11 May 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103078
Publication status	Published - 28 May 2023

Keywords

AMOC
Holocene

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10.1029/2023GL103078Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

JiangZ2023ConsistentFinal published version, 2.96 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

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Jiang, Z., Brierley, C., Bader, J., Braconnot, P., Erb, M., Hopcroft, P., Jiang, D., Jungclaus, J., Khon, V., Lohmann, G., Marti, O., Otto-bliesner, B. L., Osman, M., Schneider, B., Shi, X., Thornalley, DJR., Tian, Z., & Zhang, Q. (2023). No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(10), Article e2023GL103078. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103078

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title = "No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years",

abstract = "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid‐to‐late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid‐ and late‐Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.",

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author = "Zhiyi Jiang and Chris Brierley and Jurgen Bader and Pascale Braconnot and M Erb and Peter Hopcroft and D Jiang and Johann Jungclaus and V Khon and G Lohmann and O Marti and Otto-bliesner, {Bette L.} and M Osman and B Schneider and X Shi and DJR Thornalley and Z Tian and Qiong Zhang",

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Jiang, Z, Brierley, C, Bader, J, Braconnot, P, Erb, M, Hopcroft, P, Jiang, D, Jungclaus, J, Khon, V, Lohmann, G, Marti, O, Otto-bliesner, BL, Osman, M, Schneider, B, Shi, X, Thornalley, DJR, Tian, Z & Zhang, Q 2023, 'No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, no. 10, e2023GL103078. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103078

TY - JOUR

T1 - No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years

AU - Jiang, Zhiyi

AU - Brierley, Chris

AU - Bader, Jurgen

AU - Braconnot, Pascale

AU - Erb, M

AU - Hopcroft, Peter

AU - Jiang, D

AU - Jungclaus, Johann

AU - Khon, V

AU - Lohmann, G

AU - Marti, O

AU - Otto-bliesner, Bette L.

AU - Osman, M

AU - Schneider, B

AU - Shi, X

AU - Thornalley, DJR

AU - Tian, Z

AU - Zhang, Qiong

PY - 2023/5/28

Y1 - 2023/5/28

N2 - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid‐to‐late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid‐ and late‐Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

AB - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid‐to‐late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid‐ and late‐Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

KW - AMOC

KW - Holocene

U2 - 10.1029/2023GL103078

DO - 10.1029/2023GL103078

M3 - Letter

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 50

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 10

M1 - e2023GL103078

ER -

No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years

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Keywords

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