The development of structured guidelines for assessing risk in extremist offenders

This paper describes a methodology developed by the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) to assess risk and needs in convicted extremist offenders in England and Wales, and for the assessment of those offenders for whom there are credible concerns about their potential to commit such offences. A methodology was needed to provide an empirically-based systematic and transparent approach to the assessment of risk to inform proportionate risk management; increase understanding and confidence amongst front-line staff and decision-makers, and facilitate effective and targeted intervention. It outlines how the methodology was developed, the nature of the assessment, its theoretical underpinnings, the challenges faced and how these have been addressed. Learning from casework with offenders, from government commissioned research and the wider literature is presented in the form of 22 general factors (with an opportunity to capture additional idiosyncratic factors, i.e., 22) that contribute to an individual formulation of risk and needs that bears on three dimensions of engagement, intent and capability. The relationship of this methodology, the Extremism Risk Guidelines (ERG 22) with comparable guidelines, the Violent Extremism Risk Assessment 2 (VERA version 2) and the Multi-Level Guidelines (MLG), is also discussed. This paper also considers the ERG’s utility, validity and limitations.