The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Heidi Kreibich; Anne F. Van Loon; Kai Schröter; Philip J. Ward; Maurizio Mazzoleni; Nivedita Sairam; Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu; Svetlana Agafonova; Amir Aghakouchak; Hafzullah Aksoy; Camila Alvarez-garreton; Blanca Aznar; Laila Balkhi; Marlies H. Barendrecht; Sylvain Biancamaria; Liduin Bos-burgering; Chris Bradley; Yus Budiyono; Wouter Buytaert; Lucinda Capewell; Hayley Carlson; Yonca Cavus; Anaïs Couasnon; Gemma Coxon; Ioannis Daliakopoulos; Marleen C. De Ruiter; Claire Delus; Mathilde Erfurt; Giuseppe Esposito; Didier François; Frédéric Frappart; Jim Freer; Natalia Frolova; Animesh K. Gain; Manolis Grillakis; Jordi Oriol Grima; Diego A. Guzmán; Laurie S. Huning; Monica Ionita; Maxim Kharlamov; Dao Nguyen Khoi; Natalie Kieboom; Maria Kireeva; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Waldo Lavado-casimiro; María Carmen Llasat; David Macdonald; Johanna Mård; Hannah Mathew-richards; Andrew Mckenzie; Alfonso Mejia; Eduardo Mario Mendiondo; Marjolein Mens; Shifteh Mobini; Guilherme Samprogna Mohor; Viorica Nagavciuc; Thanh Ngo-duc; Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh; Pham Thi Thao Nhi; Olga Petrucci; Hong Quan Nguyen; Pere Quintana-seguí; Saman Razavi; Elena Ridolfi; Jannik Riegel; Md Shibly Sadik; Elisa Savelli; Alexey Sazonov; Sanjib Sharma; Johanna Sörensen; Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza; Kerstin Stahl; Max Steinhausen; Michael Stoelzle; Wiwiana Szalińska; Qiuhong Tang; Fuqiang Tian; Tamara Tokarczyk; Carolina Tovar; Thi Van Thu Tran; Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort; Michelle T. H. Van Vliet; Sergiy Vorogushyn; Thorsten Wagener; Yueling Wang; Doris E. Wendt; Elliot Wickham; Long Yang; Mauricio Zambrano-bigiarini; Günter Blöschl; Giuliano Di Baldassarre

doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Heidi Kreibich, Anne F. Van Loon, Kai Schröter, Philip J. Ward, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Nivedita Sairam, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir Aghakouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda CapewellHayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. De Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-casimiro, María Carmen Llasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-richards, Andrew Mckenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-duc, Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Hong Quan Nguyen, Pere Quintana-seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. Van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-bigiarini, Günter Blöschl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre

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Abstract

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally ^1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing ³. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data ^4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change ³.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	80-86
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature
Volume	608
Issue number	7921
Early online date	3 Aug 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5
Publication status	Published - 4 Aug 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The presented work was developed by the Panta Rhei Working Groups 'Changes in flood risk' and 'Drought in the Anthropocene' within the framework of the Panta Rhei Research Initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. We thank the Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A., Barcelona City Council, Environment Agency (United Kingdom), Länsförsäkringar Skåne, Steering Centre for Urban Flood Control Programme in HCMC (Vietnam), VA SYD and the West Berkshire Council (United Kingdom) for data. The work was partly undertaken under the framework of the following projects: Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Professorship endowed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); British Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Topic (core science funding); C3-RiskMed (no. PID2020-113638RB-C22), financed by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain; Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (no. ANID/FONDAP/15110009); CNES, through the TOSCA GRANT SWHYM; DECIDER (BMBF, no. 01LZ1703G); Deltares research programme on water resources; Dutch Research Council VIDI grant (no. 016.161.324); FLOOD (no. BMBF 01LP1903E), as part of the ClimXtreme Research Network. Funding was provided by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate; Global Water Futures programme of University of Saskatchewan; GlobalHydroPressure (Water JPI); HUMID project (no. CGL2017-85687-R, AEI/FEDER, UE); HydroSocialExtremes (ERC Consolidator Grant no. 771678); MYRIAD-EU (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003276); PerfectSTORM (no. ERC-2020-StG 948601); Project EFA210/16 PIRAGUA, co-founded by ERDF through the POCTEFA 2014–2020 programme of the European Union; Research project nos. ANID/FSEQ210001 and ANID/NSFC190018, funded by the National Research and Development Agency of Chile; SECurITY (Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 787419); SPATE (FWF project I 4776-N, DFG research group FOR 2416); the UK Natural Environment Research Council-funded project Land Management in Lowland Catchments for Integrated Flood Risk Reduction (LANDWISE, grant no. NE/R004668/1); UK NERC grant no. NE/S013210/1 (RAHU) (W.B.); Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development under grant no. 105.06-2019.20.; and Vietnam National University–HCMC under grant no. C2018-48-01. D.M. and A. McKenzie publish with the permission of the Director, British Geological Survey. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not the organizations for which they work.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Keywords

Climate Change/statistics & numerical data
Datasets as Topic
Droughts/prevention & control
Extreme Weather
Floods/prevention & control
Humans
Hydrology
Internationality
Risk Management/methods

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KreibichH2022challengeFinal published version, 7.02 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04917-5Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

Cite this

Kreibich, H., Van Loon, A. F., Schröter, K., Ward, P. J., Mazzoleni, M., Sairam, N., Abeshu, G. W., Agafonova, S., Aghakouchak, A., Aksoy, H., Alvarez-garreton, C., Aznar, B., Balkhi, L., Barendrecht, M. H., Biancamaria, S., Bos-burgering, L., Bradley, C., Budiyono, Y., Buytaert, W., ... Di Baldassarre, G. (2022). The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Nature, 608(7921), 80-86. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

@article{16e48cfb7b7d4920a18821ccd95cfe6c,

title = "The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management",

abstract = "Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing 3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3.",

keywords = "Climate Change/statistics & numerical data, Datasets as Topic, Droughts/prevention & control, Extreme Weather, Floods/prevention & control, Humans, Hydrology, Internationality, Risk Management/methods",

author = "Heidi Kreibich and {Van Loon}, {Anne F.} and Kai Schr{\"o}ter and Ward, {Philip J.} and Maurizio Mazzoleni and Nivedita Sairam and Abeshu, {Guta Wakbulcho} and Svetlana Agafonova and Amir Aghakouchak and Hafzullah Aksoy and Camila Alvarez-garreton and Blanca Aznar and Laila Balkhi and Barendrecht, {Marlies H.} and Sylvain Biancamaria and Liduin Bos-burgering and Chris Bradley and Yus Budiyono and Wouter Buytaert and Lucinda Capewell and Hayley Carlson and Yonca Cavus and Ana{\"i}s Couasnon and Gemma Coxon and Ioannis Daliakopoulos and {De Ruiter}, {Marleen C.} and Claire Delus and Mathilde Erfurt and Giuseppe Esposito and Didier Fran{\c c}ois and Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric Frappart and Jim Freer and Natalia Frolova and Gain, {Animesh K.} and Manolis Grillakis and Grima, {Jordi Oriol} and Guzm{\'a}n, {Diego A.} and Huning, {Laurie S.} and Monica Ionita and Maxim Kharlamov and Khoi, {Dao Nguyen} and Natalie Kieboom and Maria Kireeva and Aristeidis Koutroulis and Waldo Lavado-casimiro and Llasat, {Mar{\'i}a Carmen} and David Macdonald and Johanna M{\aa}rd and Hannah Mathew-richards and Andrew Mckenzie and Alfonso Mejia and Mendiondo, {Eduardo Mario} and Marjolein Mens and Shifteh Mobini and Mohor, {Guilherme Samprogna} and Viorica Nagavciuc and Thanh Ngo-duc and {Thao Nguyen Huynh}, Thi and Nhi, {Pham Thi Thao} and Olga Petrucci and Nguyen, {Hong Quan} and Pere Quintana-segu{\'i} and Saman Razavi and Elena Ridolfi and Jannik Riegel and Sadik, {Md Shibly} and Elisa Savelli and Alexey Sazonov and Sanjib Sharma and Johanna S{\"o}rensen and {Arguello Souza}, {Felipe Augusto} and Kerstin Stahl and Max Steinhausen and Michael Stoelzle and Wiwiana Szali{\'n}ska and Qiuhong Tang and Fuqiang Tian and Tamara Tokarczyk and Carolina Tovar and Tran, {Thi Van Thu} and {Van Huijgevoort}, {Marjolein H. J.} and {Van Vliet}, {Michelle T. H.} and Sergiy Vorogushyn and Thorsten Wagener and Yueling Wang and Wendt, {Doris E.} and Elliot Wickham and Long Yang and Mauricio Zambrano-bigiarini and G{\"u}nter Bl{\"o}schl and {Di Baldassarre}, Giuliano",

note = "Funding Information: The presented work was developed by the Panta Rhei Working Groups 'Changes in flood risk' and 'Drought in the Anthropocene' within the framework of the Panta Rhei Research Initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. We thank the Barcelona Cicle de l{\textquoteright}Aigua S.A., Barcelona City Council, Environment Agency (United Kingdom), L{\"a}nsf{\"o}rs{\"a}kringar Sk{\aa}ne, Steering Centre for Urban Flood Control Programme in HCMC (Vietnam), VA SYD and the West Berkshire Council (United Kingdom) for data. The work was partly undertaken under the framework of the following projects: Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Professorship endowed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); British Geological Survey{\textquoteright}s Groundwater Resources Topic (core science funding); C3-RiskMed (no. PID2020-113638RB-C22), financed by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain; Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (no. ANID/FONDAP/15110009); CNES, through the TOSCA GRANT SWHYM; DECIDER (BMBF, no. 01LZ1703G); Deltares research programme on water resources; Dutch Research Council VIDI grant (no. 016.161.324); FLOOD (no. BMBF 01LP1903E), as part of the ClimXtreme Research Network. Funding was provided by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate; Global Water Futures programme of University of Saskatchewan; GlobalHydroPressure (Water JPI); HUMID project (no. CGL2017-85687-R, AEI/FEDER, UE); HydroSocialExtremes (ERC Consolidator Grant no. 771678); MYRIAD-EU (European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003276); PerfectSTORM (no. ERC-2020-StG 948601); Project EFA210/16 PIRAGUA, co-founded by ERDF through the POCTEFA 2014–2020 programme of the European Union; Research project nos. ANID/FSEQ210001 and ANID/NSFC190018, funded by the National Research and Development Agency of Chile; SECurITY (Marie Sk{\l}odowska-Curie grant agreement no. 787419); SPATE (FWF project I 4776-N, DFG research group FOR 2416); the UK Natural Environment Research Council-funded project Land Management in Lowland Catchments for Integrated Flood Risk Reduction (LANDWISE, grant no. NE/R004668/1); UK NERC grant no. NE/S013210/1 (RAHU) (W.B.); Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development under grant no. 105.06-2019.20.; and Vietnam National University–HCMC under grant no. C2018-48-01. D.M. and A. McKenzie publish with the permission of the Director, British Geological Survey. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not the organizations for which they work. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

year = "2022",

month = aug,

day = "4",

doi = "10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5",

language = "English",

volume = "608",

pages = "80--86",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "7921",

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Kreibich, H, Van Loon, AF, Schröter, K, Ward, PJ, Mazzoleni, M, Sairam, N, Abeshu, GW, Agafonova, S, Aghakouchak, A, Aksoy, H, Alvarez-garreton, C, Aznar, B, Balkhi, L, Barendrecht, MH, Biancamaria, S, Bos-burgering, L, Bradley, C, Budiyono, Y, Buytaert, W, Capewell, L, Carlson, H, Cavus, Y, Couasnon, A, Coxon, G, Daliakopoulos, I, De Ruiter, MC, Delus, C, Erfurt, M, Esposito, G, François, D, Frappart, F, Freer, J, Frolova, N, Gain, AK, Grillakis, M, Grima, JO, Guzmán, DA, Huning, LS, Ionita, M, Kharlamov, M, Khoi, DN, Kieboom, N, Kireeva, M, Koutroulis, A, Lavado-casimiro, W, Llasat, MC, Macdonald, D, Mård, J, Mathew-richards, H, Mckenzie, A, Mejia, A, Mendiondo, EM, Mens, M, Mobini, S, Mohor, GS, Nagavciuc, V, Ngo-duc, T, Thao Nguyen Huynh, T, Nhi, PTT, Petrucci, O, Nguyen, HQ, Quintana-seguí, P, Razavi, S, Ridolfi, E, Riegel, J, Sadik, MS, Savelli, E, Sazonov, A, Sharma, S, Sörensen, J, Arguello Souza, FA, Stahl, K, Steinhausen, M, Stoelzle, M, Szalińska, W, Tang, Q, Tian, F, Tokarczyk, T, Tovar, C, Tran, TVT, Van Huijgevoort, MHJ, Van Vliet, MTH, Vorogushyn, S, Wagener, T, Wang, Y, Wendt, DE, Wickham, E, Yang, L, Zambrano-bigiarini, M, Blöschl, G & Di Baldassarre, G 2022, 'The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management', Nature, vol. 608, no. 7921, pp. 80-86. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

TY - JOUR

T1 - The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

AU - Kreibich, Heidi

AU - Van Loon, Anne F.

AU - Schröter, Kai

AU - Ward, Philip J.

AU - Mazzoleni, Maurizio

AU - Sairam, Nivedita

AU - Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho

AU - Agafonova, Svetlana

AU - Aghakouchak, Amir

AU - Aksoy, Hafzullah

AU - Alvarez-garreton, Camila

AU - Aznar, Blanca

AU - Balkhi, Laila

AU - Barendrecht, Marlies H.

AU - Biancamaria, Sylvain

AU - Bos-burgering, Liduin

AU - Bradley, Chris

AU - Budiyono, Yus

AU - Buytaert, Wouter

AU - Capewell, Lucinda

AU - Carlson, Hayley

AU - Cavus, Yonca

AU - Couasnon, Anaïs

AU - Coxon, Gemma

AU - Daliakopoulos, Ioannis

AU - De Ruiter, Marleen C.

AU - Delus, Claire

AU - Erfurt, Mathilde

AU - Esposito, Giuseppe

AU - François, Didier

AU - Frappart, Frédéric

AU - Freer, Jim

AU - Frolova, Natalia

AU - Gain, Animesh K.

AU - Grillakis, Manolis

AU - Grima, Jordi Oriol

AU - Guzmán, Diego A.

AU - Huning, Laurie S.

AU - Ionita, Monica

AU - Kharlamov, Maxim

AU - Khoi, Dao Nguyen

AU - Kieboom, Natalie

AU - Kireeva, Maria

AU - Koutroulis, Aristeidis

AU - Lavado-casimiro, Waldo

AU - Llasat, María Carmen

AU - Macdonald, David

AU - Mård, Johanna

AU - Mathew-richards, Hannah

AU - Mckenzie, Andrew

AU - Mejia, Alfonso

AU - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario

AU - Mens, Marjolein

AU - Mobini, Shifteh

AU - Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna

AU - Nagavciuc, Viorica

AU - Ngo-duc, Thanh

AU - Thao Nguyen Huynh, Thi

AU - Nhi, Pham Thi Thao

AU - Petrucci, Olga

AU - Nguyen, Hong Quan

AU - Quintana-seguí, Pere

AU - Razavi, Saman

AU - Ridolfi, Elena

AU - Riegel, Jannik

AU - Sadik, Md Shibly

AU - Savelli, Elisa

AU - Sazonov, Alexey

AU - Sharma, Sanjib

AU - Sörensen, Johanna

AU - Arguello Souza, Felipe Augusto

AU - Stahl, Kerstin

AU - Steinhausen, Max

AU - Stoelzle, Michael

AU - Szalińska, Wiwiana

AU - Tang, Qiuhong

AU - Tian, Fuqiang

AU - Tokarczyk, Tamara

AU - Tovar, Carolina

AU - Tran, Thi Van Thu

AU - Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J.

AU - Van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

AU - Vorogushyn, Sergiy

AU - Wagener, Thorsten

AU - Wang, Yueling

AU - Wendt, Doris E.

AU - Wickham, Elliot

AU - Yang, Long

AU - Zambrano-bigiarini, Mauricio

AU - Blöschl, Günter

AU - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

N1 - Funding Information: The presented work was developed by the Panta Rhei Working Groups 'Changes in flood risk' and 'Drought in the Anthropocene' within the framework of the Panta Rhei Research Initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. We thank the Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A., Barcelona City Council, Environment Agency (United Kingdom), Länsförsäkringar Skåne, Steering Centre for Urban Flood Control Programme in HCMC (Vietnam), VA SYD and the West Berkshire Council (United Kingdom) for data. The work was partly undertaken under the framework of the following projects: Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Professorship endowed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); British Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Topic (core science funding); C3-RiskMed (no. PID2020-113638RB-C22), financed by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain; Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (no. ANID/FONDAP/15110009); CNES, through the TOSCA GRANT SWHYM; DECIDER (BMBF, no. 01LZ1703G); Deltares research programme on water resources; Dutch Research Council VIDI grant (no. 016.161.324); FLOOD (no. BMBF 01LP1903E), as part of the ClimXtreme Research Network. Funding was provided by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate; Global Water Futures programme of University of Saskatchewan; GlobalHydroPressure (Water JPI); HUMID project (no. CGL2017-85687-R, AEI/FEDER, UE); HydroSocialExtremes (ERC Consolidator Grant no. 771678); MYRIAD-EU (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003276); PerfectSTORM (no. ERC-2020-StG 948601); Project EFA210/16 PIRAGUA, co-founded by ERDF through the POCTEFA 2014–2020 programme of the European Union; Research project nos. ANID/FSEQ210001 and ANID/NSFC190018, funded by the National Research and Development Agency of Chile; SECurITY (Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 787419); SPATE (FWF project I 4776-N, DFG research group FOR 2416); the UK Natural Environment Research Council-funded project Land Management in Lowland Catchments for Integrated Flood Risk Reduction (LANDWISE, grant no. NE/R004668/1); UK NERC grant no. NE/S013210/1 (RAHU) (W.B.); Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development under grant no. 105.06-2019.20.; and Vietnam National University–HCMC under grant no. C2018-48-01. D.M. and A. McKenzie publish with the permission of the Director, British Geological Survey. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not the organizations for which they work. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

PY - 2022/8/4

Y1 - 2022/8/4

N2 - Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing 3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3.

AB - Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing 3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3.

KW - Climate Change/statistics & numerical data

KW - Datasets as Topic

KW - Droughts/prevention & control

KW - Extreme Weather

KW - Floods/prevention & control

KW - Humans

KW - Hydrology

KW - Internationality

KW - Risk Management/methods

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85135317182&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

DO - 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

M3 - Article

C2 - 35922501

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 608

SP - 80

EP - 86

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7921

ER -

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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